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              豆系内外盘的爱恨纠葛 论CBOT大豆和连豆粕的关系

              文章来源:  发布时间: 2018-11-25 11:33:52  责任编辑:scs4ioe.com
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              ZUOZHE:MEIERYAQIHUO NONGCHANPINFENXISHI DAIJUNMEI

              作者观点

              我们需要综合分析影响CBOT大豆(3393, -9.00, -0.26%)和连豆粕(2763, 11.00, 0.40%)市场的因素,结合豆系板块的现状判断走势。在此基础之上,将CBOT大豆价格与连豆粕的价格对照来看,相互印证。充分利用CBOT大豆交易时间长的优势,作为市场情绪指引的风向标。

              1 摘    要

              ZAIGUANZHUDALIANSHANGPINJIAOYISUODEDOUPOQIHUOPINZHONGSHIWOMENBUNANFAXIAN,TADEZHANGDIEZONGSHIHEZHIJIAGESHANGPINJIAOYISUODEDADOUQIHUOPINZHONGDEZHANGDIEZOUSHIMOMINGTIEHE。SHISHISHANGZHEILIANGGEPINZHONGZHIJIANQUESHICUNZAIZHEXIANZHUDEZHENGXIANGGUANGUANXI,CBOTDADOUCONGCHENGBEN、KUCUNHESHICHANGQINGXUDENGFANGMIANYINGXIANGZHELIANDOUPODEZOUSHI。DANSHIZAIJIAOYIDANGZHONGYEXUYAOBIANZHENGDEKANDAILIANGZHEDEGUANXI,WEIXIAYIBUDEJIHUATIGONGZHICHENG。

              2 背景介绍

              久久热手机视频MEIGUOSHIQUANQIUDADOUDEZHUCHANGUO,ERZHONGGUOSHIDADOUZHUYAOXIAOFEIGUO,CAIGOUDEDADOUYONGYUZHICHENGDOUPO。MEIGUODADOUHEZHONGGUODOUPOLIANGZHEJUYOUCHANYELIANSHANGDEGUANXI,YINCICBOTDADOUHELIANDOUPOQIHUODEJIAGEYEYOUQIANSIWANLVDELIANXI。

              YIFANGMIAN,CONGZHIJIAGESHANGPINJIAOYISUODADOU(YIXIAJIANCHENGCBOTDADOU)HEDALIANSHANGPINJIAOYISUODEDOUPO(YIXIAJIANCHENGLIANDOUPO)LIANGZHEDEQIHUOLISHIJIAGEZOUSHITULAIKAN,ZONGTILAISHUOZHANGDIEDEQUSHIJIAOWEIXIANGTONG。YOUYUCBOTDADOUSHIMEIYUANJIJIAERDOUPOSHIRENMINBIJIJIA,YINCILIANGZHEZHIJIANDEBODONGFUDUDAXIAOBINGBUJINXIANGTONG,ERSHIYUDANGSHIDERENMINBIDUIHUANMEIYUANHUILVXIANGGUAN。

              SHUJULAIYUAN:wind MEIERYAQIHUO

              LINGYIFANGMIAN,WOGUODEDOUPOSHIYOUJINKOUDADOUYAZHAZHICHENGDE,YINCIDOUPODEHEJINKOUDADOUSHUYUTONGYICHANYELIAN。JINKOUDADOUDEJIAGEZHIJIENENGGOUGUANXIDAOYOUCHANGYAZHASHIDECAIGOUCHENGBEN。ERMUQIANWOGUODEJINKOUDADOUMUQIANMEIYOUXIANGYINGDEDADOUBAOHUJIA,YEMEIYOUZHUANMENDESHOUGOUZIJIN,DADOUDESHIJISHOUGOUJIAYOUSHUANGFANGXIESHANGYIDING。ERXIEYIJIAGEYUCBOTDADOUXIXIXIANGGUAN。

              3 实证检验

              久久热手机视频WEILECONGSHIJIANSHUJUDEJIAODUYANZHENGYISHANGJIELUN,BENWENYONGJILIANGJINGJIXUEZHONGYIYUANHUIGUIDEFANGFA,XUANQU2005ZHIJINDECBOTDADOUHEDALIANSHANGPINJIAOYISUODEDOUPOSHOUPANJIA(GONG3067DUISHUJU),DUICBOTDADOUHELIANDOUPODEGUANXIJINXINGLEYANJIU。

              久久热手机视频SHOUXIAN,BENWENJISUANCBOTDADOUHEDOUPOZHIJIANDEXIANGGUANXISHU,FAXIANWEI0.882。ZHEISHUOMINGERZHEXIANGGUANDUHENGAO,QIEWEIZHENGXIANGGUANGUANXI。ZAICIJICHUSHANG,BENWENJINYIBUJIANYAN。YILIANDOUPOQIHUOJIAGEWEIBEIJIESHIBIANLIANGY,CBOTDADOUQIHUOJIAGEWEIJIESHIBIANLIANGXJINXINGHUIGUI。HUIGUIJIEGUORUXIA。

              SHUJULAIYUAN:MEIERYAQIHUO

              久久热手机视频HUIGUIHOUDEDAOY= 1559.18+ 1.33X+et,HUIGUIFANGCHENGDENIHEYOUDUR2WEI0.78,ZAI99%DEZHIXINSHUIPINGXIAJIEJUXIANGHEXISHUXIANGPZHIDOUWEI0,SHANGTUZHANSHILEMOXINGYUCEDELIANDOUPOJIAGE(JUHUANG)HELANSEDELIANDOUPOSHIJIJIAGE,KEYIKANCHULIANGZHEDEPIANCHABUSHIHENDA。

              CONGZHEICIJIANYANDANGZHONGWOMENDEDAOJIELUN,CBOTDADOUYULIANDOUPOYOUXIANZHUDEZHENGXIANGGUANGUANXI。

              4 关系逻辑

              久久热手机视频CHUXIANZHEIZHONGXIANZHUDEZHENGXIANGGUANGUANXI,YEYOUQIJIBENMIANFENXIDELUOJICHUANDAOTUJING。

              (1)CBOT大豆衡量了豆粕的成本

              CBOTDEDADOUNENGGOUTONGGUOJIAGEDEQUDAOZHIYINGUONEIDEQIHUOJIAGE。

              MUQIANSIDAGUOJILIANGSHANGADM(Archer Daniels Midland)、BANGJI(Bunge)、JIAJI(Cargill)、LUYIDAFU(Louis Dreyfus)YIJINGXINGCHENGLEYITAODIANJIAJIAOYIDEMOSHI。ZHEITAOMOSHIYIJINGJIAOWEICHENGSHU,ZAIJINKOUDADOUCAIGOUDEGUOCHENGDANGZHONGYINGYONGGUANGFAN。QIZHONG,DIANJIAJIAOYIDEXIANHUODINGJIASHIQIHUOJIAGEJIAYIDINGDESHENGTIESHUI。SHOUXIANYOULIANGSHANGBAOCHUSHENGTIESHUI,RANHOUNONGCHANGZHUHUOYOUCHANGZAIZHIDINGDEHEYUEANZHIDINGSHIXIANXUANZEMANYIDEQIHUOJIAGE(DIANJIA)XINGCHENGJIAGE。LIANGSHANGZAISHICHANGSHANGANXIABIAODUICHONGHOU,JIUNENGSHOUDAOGUDINGLIRUNb–a。QIZHONGDEQIHUOJIAGEDUOWEICBOTDADOUHEYUEDEQIHUOJIAGE。

              LAIYUAN:MEIERYAQIHUO

              ZHEIZHONGDIANJIAJIAOYIMOSHISHIYONGCBOTQIHUOJIAGEZUOWEIGUONEIDOUPOYUANLIAODEJIAGEJICHU。YOUQISHIMUQIANNANMEIDADOUDEBAOJIAYECAIYONGZHEIZHONGMOSHI,YINCIZHIJIEYINGXIANGDAOJINKOUDADOUWANSHUIJIA,CONGERYINGXIANGLIANDOUPODECHENGBENZHICHENGXIAN。

              久久热手机视频LIRUSHUOXIATUZHANSHIDE2019NIAN5YUEZHONGXUNZHIQIANDEQIHUOZOUSHI:

              SHUJULAIYUAN:wind MEIERYAQIHUO

              ZHEIYIDUANSHIJIAN,MAOYIZHANZANSHIXIAOXIBUDUO,YINGXIANGBUDA。YINCISHICHANGYOUNANMEIDADOUDESHENGCHANHESHANGSHIZHUDAOSHICHANGDEJIEZOU。CBOTDADOUZHUYAOFANYINGDESHIJINKOUNANMEIDADOUSHIDECHENGBENQINGKUANG,YINCICBOTDADOUHEMEIDOUCHUXIANLETONGSHENGTONGJIANGDEQINGKUANG。

              (2)CBOT大豆影响豆粕的库存

              久久热手机视频CBOTDADOUTONGGUOGUOJIMAOYICHUANDAOYEHUITONGGUODADOUXIANHUOYINGXIANGLIANDOUPO。CBOTDADOUDEJIAGESHENGJIANGTONGSHENGTIESHUIHUILVDENGYINSUYIQIYINGXIANGDADOUYAZHALIRUN,CONGERZHIYINDADOUCAIGOUDESHULIANG,YINGXIANGDADOUKUCUN,FANYINGLEDOUPOGONGJIMIANDEQINGKUANG。

              久久热手机视频YI2019NIANDEQINGKUANGWEILI(JIANXIATU,MEIWANHEMEIXIYAZHALIRUNLIANGTIAOXIANANZHAO33%SHUIJISUAN),YOUCHANGDEYAZHALIRUNJIBENSHANGHECBOTDADOUDEZOUSHICHENGXIANXIANGFANDEQUSHI。OUERYOULVEWEIDECHAYI,SHIYOUYURENMINBIDEBIZHISHENGJIANG、BAOJIASHENGTIESHUIDESHENGJIANGDENGYINSUYINGXIANG。

              CONGYAZHALIRUNDAODOUPOGONGJIDECHUANDAO,YICONGSANYUEMOQIDAOLIUYUEZHONGXUNDESHIHOUWEILI,NANMEIDADOUYAZHALIRUNMINGXIANJIAOHAO,JINGGUOBANGEYUEDAOYIGEYUEZUOYOUDECHUANQIZHIHOUCHUANDAOZHIYOUCHANGDEYAZHALIANG,SHIDEYAZHALIANGSHENGGAO。QIZHONGWUYUECHUDEYAZHALIANGXIAHUASHIYOUYULAODONGJIEGUOJIETINGJIDAILAIDE。

              DANZHEIZHONGCHUANDAOFANGSHIZHUYAOYINGXIANGDESHIXIANHUOSHICHANG,DUIYUQIHUOSHICHANGDEYINGXIANGBIJIAOJIANJIE。

              SHUJULAIYUAN:wind MEIERYAQIHUO

              SHUJULAIYUAN:TIANXIALIANGCANG MEIERYAQIHUO

              (3)CBOT大豆影响连豆粕市场的市场情绪

              CBOTDADOUSHICHANGYOUYUKEYIJIAOYIDESHIJIANJIAOZHANG,QIETONGCHANGZAIBEIJINGSHIJIANDEWANJIANGENGWEIHUOYUE,NENGGOUCHONGFENFANYINGYEJIANWAIPANDESHICHANGFASHENGDESHIJIANHEQINGXUDONGTAI。ZHEIZHONGDUIGEYEXIAOXIDEFANYING,ZAINEIPANKAIPANZHIQIANKEYIXINGCHENGYIGEFANGXIANGXINGZHIYINDEZUOYONG。ERCBOTDADOUZAIBEIJINGSHIJIANBAITIANDECHENGJIAO,NENGGOUYONGYIYINZHENGDANGXIADUINEIPANDEPANDUAN。

              5 辩证看待CBOT大豆和连豆粕之间的关系

              (1)某些因素的影响方向不同

              久久热手机视频YOUYIXIEYINSUDEBIANHUADUICBOTDADOUHELIANDOUPODEYINGXIANGFANGXIANGBUTONG,ZHEIXUYAOWOMENZAILIYONGLIANGZHEDEZHENGXIANGGUANGUANXIPANDUANSHI,NENGGOUCONGDUOGEJIAODUJINXINGYANZHENGHEXIUZHENG。

              BIRUSHUOZAICHUXIANMAOYITANPANXIANGGUANXIAOXISHI,YOUYULIANGGEPINZHONGSUOCHUDESHICHANGBUTONG,YINCIMINGANXIAOXILAIYUANYEBUTONG。CBOTDADOUGENGRONGYIYINWEITELANGPUDENGMEIFANGXIAOXIERCHUXIANBODONG,ERLIANDOUPOZEDUIZHONGGUOSHANGWUBUHUOZHEWAIJIAOBUDEXIAOXIGENGWEIMINGAN。ERZAICIQIJIANHUICHUXIANSHUANGFANGSHICHANGQINGXUDECHAYI。YOUQISHIDANGGUONEIWAIDEXIAOXICHUXIANCHONGTUSHI,DUILIANDOUPODEPANDUANYINGGAIYIGUONEIWEIZHU。TONGSHIJIAZHENGSHUIDUIYUCBOTDADOULAISHUOSHIXIAOFEIJIANRUODELIKONG,DUIGUONEIDOUPOQIJIALAISHUOQUESHIGONGJIDUANQUEDELIHAO。ZHEIXUYAOJIEHEDANGSHIJUTIDEJINCHUKOUQINGKUANGZONGHEPANDUANSHIJIANDEYINGXIANG。

              久久热手机视频XIATUSUOSHIDESHIQI,MAOYIMOCASHENGJI,TONGSHIDIEJIAMEIGUODUIZHONGGUODECHUKOUSHUJUXIANSHICHUKOUJIAOCHA,SHIDEMEIDOUHEDOUPODEZOUSHICHUXIANLEXIANGBEILIDEZHUANGTAI。

              久久热手机视频SHUJULAIYUAN:wind MEIERYAQIHUO

              (2)综合看待豆系板块的关系

              CBOTDADOUDEZHANGDIEHEDOUPOYOUZHEJINMIDELIANXI,DANSHIDADOUYAZHADECHANYELIANSHANGCHULEDADOU、DOUPO,HAIYOUDOUYOU。YINCIDALIANSHANGPINJIAOYISUODEDOUYOUQIHUOPINZHONGYEHENDACHENGDUSHANGYINGXIANGZHECBOTDADOUHEDOUPODEGUANXI。BIRUZUIJINMAOYITANPANTAISHIFANFU,CBOTDADOUSUIZHIZHENDANGSHANGXINGSHI,YOUYUDOUYOUDEQIANGSHISHANGZHANG,DOUPOBAOCHILEJIAOWEISHUNCHANGDEXIADIE。QIZHONGDOUYOUYINGXIANGDELUOJI,YIFANGMIANSHIZHALIJIAOHAOTISHENGYAZHALIANG,ZENGJIAGONGYINGDEDOUPO;LINGYIFANGMIANSHIMAIYOUPAOPODETAOLICAOZUOZAOCHENGYALI。

              久久热手机视频SHUJULAIYUAN:wind MEIERYAQIHUO

              总体来说,我们需要综合分析影响CBOT大豆和连豆粕市场的因素,结合豆系板块的现状判断走势。在此基础之上,将CBOT大豆价格与连豆粕的价格对照来看,相互印证。充分利用CBOT大豆交易时间长的优势,作为市场情绪指引的风向标。

              关键词: 豆系内外盘 CBOT大豆 连豆粕 豆系板块

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